3 reasons why Trump is leading

The first two don't count because it is the mugshot, stupid.

Byron York’s take on the New York Times poll that shows Trump ahead (a poll I take with a grain of salt and pour down the drain) was “Why is Trump leading Biden? Look at three big reasons.”

The first two reasons — things have gone to hell since Biden became president, and Biden's age — don’t count. Biden is only 4 years older than PDJT and Americans always say the country’s economy is headed to hell in a handbasket; is there any other mode of transportation for that destination?

What is doing Biden in are the prosecutions.

York wrote, “Reason one and reason two have to do with the way the general electorate views Biden and Trump. Reason three has to do with the intensity of the way Republicans view Trump. The short version is that four indictments, plus a lawsuit in New York designed to destroy him financially, plus lawsuits across the country intended to remove his name from the 2024 ballot — all pushed by local elected Democrats, Democratic activists, or the current Democratic administration — have significantly hardened the determination of some Trump supporters to keep supporting him.

“So, when news events occur and some less-committed voters move around, the core of Trump supporters stays rock solid. There are not enough of them to elect Trump president, but they are the foundation upon which he has built his campaign.

“The new poll clearly shocked many Biden supporters. Already, pushback has begun, which you can be sure will continue. And indeed, everyone should remember that a lot can change in the year before the election. But some things will not change — Biden will not get any younger — and the race will likely remain super-competitive until the end.”

The prosecutions are numerous and unfair in a manner that crosses party lines. The long media campaign to belittle and ridicule Donald Trump overlooks the fact that he is a president, an office that entitles him to some respect. It also makes him the underdog and Americans love an underdog.

The laugh of the day comes from Tesnim Zekeria, who complained, “61 activists appeared before Fulton County Court yesterday on racketeering charges related to their protest of Atlanta’s new Public Safety Training Center, commonly known as Cop City. The arraignment comes after the Georgia Attorney General’s Office alleged, in September, that defendants were conspiring to violate the state’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act. If convicted, each Stop Cop City activist could face up to 20 years in prison — even those who are alleged to have participated in non-violent protests. Experts worry that it’s the latest tactic by Georgia officials to stifle political dissent.”

Sow, reap.

Democrats thought the mugshot would humiliate him, but he was not some half-sober celebrity being booked on a DUI. He showed no remorse, no embarrassment and certainly no guilt. President Trump was a defiant political prisoner. In an instant, the mugshot reframed the indictments as pure politics.

Some black celebrities have rallied to his cause. Some rapper named Waka Flocka Flame (who makes a million times what I do and is known by millions more) endorsed him. This give some of us Trumpets hope of winning more black votes. I fell for it last time. Ain’t gonna happen.

The New York Times will tell you that 22% of black voters and 44% of Hispanics now support Trump but don’t fall for it because a voting bloc turns around about as fast as an ocean-going tanker ship.

It took West Virginians 16 years from voting for Reagan’s re-election to vote Republican in a presidential election again and then another 14 years to end the Democrats’ 84-year hold on the state legislature. But once flipped, West Virginians are staying flipped, which is why a political party is wise to keep trying to flip voting blocs.

The NYT poll is suspect because it came a month after Biden’s initial support of Israel after the Palestinian army attacked civilians and raped, tortured, killed and mutilated them. There were zero military targets in the October 7 attack. Palestinians broke a truce — again for the 15th time.

Biden’s reluctance to side with terrorists better explains the sudden hullabaloo about his electability. The pressure is not on him to quit the presidency but to quit the decency. Democrats support the terrorists and have for some time.

Democrat support of anti-Semitism and Muslim calls for a second Holocaust should cost the party the next 10 elections but I have learned something over the last two decades about the word should: it is a bet against the odds because man seldom does what he should.

Trump is the issue. Democrats blundered by indicting and suing him so much. Tying him up in court ties the media to keeping him on Page One, where he flourished in 2016. NYT is still holding out hope that Democrats will not suffer a Pyrrhic Victory in court that costs them the presidency.

The official paper of birdcages everywhere reported, “Trump Indictments Haven’t Sunk His Campaign, but a Conviction Might.”

The story said, “If the former president is convicted and sentenced — as many of his allies expect him to be in the Jan. 6-related trial held next year in Washington, D.C. — around 6% of voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin say they would switch their votes to Mr. Biden. That would be enough, potentially, to decide the election.”

Oh really?

In August, a week before the mugshot seen ’round the world, NYT blissfully reported, “Former President Donald J. Trump’s blistering attacks on prosecutors and the federal government over the cascade of indictments he faces do not appear to be resonating much with voters in the latest polls, yet his grip on Republicans is further tightening.

“A majority of Americans, in four recent polls, said Mr. Trump’s criminal cases were warranted. Most were surveyed before a grand jury in Georgia indicted him over his attempts to subvert the 2020 election, but after the federal indictment related to Jan. 6.”

Now that indictment in Georgia has propelled Trump’s popularity to new heights. Well, the trials will do him in, right?

Stephen Collinson of CNN wrote, “Trump’s day in court paints a dark preview of the national ordeal ahead.”

He said, “Trump’s combative defense against claims he inflated his wealth to rip off banks, insurance firms and New York state, served as a troubling preview of a 2024 election season that is likely to become ensnared with his massive legal peril. But it also revealed insights into Trump’s relentless refusal to give an inch to his enemies and showed why voters who despise East Coast authority figures and liberal societal codes adore him.

“His testimony offered warnings to lawyers who will seek to puncture his self-created bubble of alternative realities with facts and evidence — and showed how he might try to charm and confuse jurors in his coming criminal trials.”

The presumption of innocence no longer enters the liberal mind. Collinson is appalled by those who still do. And how dare Trump present facts and evidence in the courtroom.

Trump’s supporters are standing behind him and they have grown in number. In the primaries of 2016, he had roughly 40% support among Republicans. Now he has 60% or more depending on the pollster. Perhaps the convictions will reverse the damage the indictments did to his persecutors.

To be sure, the economy sucks, the world is on fire and creepy Uncle Joe needs to be put out to pasture.

But what will drive this election — if we have one instead of the ballot stuffing exercise we had in 2020 — are the indictments.

Democrats thought the mugshot would do President Trump in. Now they are banking on convicting him in their kangaroo courts.

We shall see.