Each election cycle, I used to ask my poor patients who they liked in the election. Rich people’s votes are predictable: Lawyers et al favor Dems generally, Doctors generally support republicans. Obviously there are exceptions, yet poor people give me a sense of what common sense is saying. With Obama, the people loved him in 08/12 though some favored Romney in 12. In 16 it was 90%+ with Trump, there were a few Clinton supporters in the clinic, but I knew Trump had it. To me no surprise. Same in 20, there was zero.zero Biden supporters among the poor. That’s how I knew 20 was a fix. This year once again, there was zero support for the old Coot Biden and surprisingly none for Kankles Kamala. The people know. Unlike 20, if Trump loses from the anger out there I suspect a Louis XVI awaits those that install another usurper. FJB
"JUST IN: Kamala Harris hits all-time high on political betting site Polymarket despite new polling data showing Trump outperforming himself compared to 2020."
If these polling/betting sites keep topping their previous score to make their headlines, they will run out of registered voters and kill their "perceived" legitimacy. Trump received 62M votes in 2016, 75M votes in 2020, which was exceeded by Biden's supposed 81M votes.
As these numbers explode, it is easier to understand why the Dems are importing so many illegals. They have to keep up this scam because their made-up fake votes will soon exceed the US voter population.
EVERYTHING is about money in the media and political world.............everything. Anyone who thinks that polling is not corrupted and targeted to a specific result is just not paying attention. As a marketing friend of mine puts it, words matter, and changing one word in a poll or marketing campaign can give you a different result. The only poll that matters is the one on election day.
I never heard of Polymarket until hearing Clay Travis discuss it. At first I thought this was going to be some sort of "wisdom of the crowd" platform. But after Act Blue's scam of hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in illegal donations by faking small dollar donations, I now think the Dims are likely manipulating this as well.
"Wasn’t that the NBA finals that Harry Enten said Trump had a better chance of winning than he did winning the presidency? He no longer works at 538. CNN hired him."
There is much talk about “fear porn”, etc, especially since c*vid. Poll Porn ranks right up there now in it’s own category. If the sheeple are barraged long enough with propaganda, including tiresome “polls”, they reckon it’ll wear us down. But when you cry wolf too many times, people stop listening.
Polls are like climate change models. They tell you what the poll taker wants the outcome to be by designing the questions or skewing the demographics.
I remember in 2016 having lunch with my depressed Democrat friend and telling him that his party will learn the lesson of the recount in Detroit where the first two wards they wanted to recount had 110% of the registered voters voted. The judge refused to let the recount go forward. I told him it was clear the Dems cheated but they believed the polls and didn’t cheat enough. They would not let that happen again. And so we had the funky 2020 counting. Will the Republicans learn this time?
I doubt we will learn anything from 2020. People believe what they want to believe and too many people are scared to admit that our sacred elections are able to be manipulated, so they pretend it isn't happening. But some of the manipulation is right in front of us. Zuckerberg spends $100M to help pay for elections in certain states. Really? They couldn't run elections in those states with the resources they already had via taxes? Come on folks, money buys elections today. It takes a billion dollars to elect a person president. Where did that money actually get spent?
Way to bring it Mr.Surber !! The msm is rolling out a new poll every day telling us cackles and tampon are steam rollers and we are asphalt so just lie down and take it. PDJT and JDV take questions anywhere ,anytime from anyone only to have the answers contorted and edited for release.Thank you,Elon, Tucker, and many others for the factual TRUTH and no-spin reminders the voters need to vote as if we are down by twenty %.Make this a MAGA too BIG to RIG victory and treats to Dr.Cat.
"Wasn’t that the NBA finals that Harry Enten said Trump had a better chance of winning than he did winning the presidency? He no longer works at 538. CNN hired him."
Polls are academic and should be taken and viewed like any other statistic: with a large dollop of salt, as you point out above. The other problem is no one can poll all the dead people, illegal aliens, multiple episode voters, and machine hardware and software switching/deleting/adding features that are systemic to all machines who will be voting. My guess is that, with the exception of a few states and locales, the average "R" has to be leading by at least 7-10 points in the polling before the election to win.
Polls that are run with scientific rigor to reduce sources of bias can provide predictive insight significantly better than a guess, but they are all lagging measures of attitude and opinion which can change in one day after the poll in response to a significant event.
There are many pollsters, most of whom aren’t worth a bowl of spit, but I believe one of the best managed polling organizations is Rasmussen Reports. Again, a poll reports PREVIOUSLY held opinions from days or weeks ago so take them with a grain of salt. But, there are a few good ones that are usable for trending analysis. I trust Rasmussen.
"Wasn’t that the NBA finals that Harry Enten said Trump had a better chance of winning than he did winning the presidency? He no longer works at 538. CNN hired him."
No human has ever been able to successfully predict a future outcome with 100% accuracy. But many humans have successfully affected a future outcome, both good and bad. All it takes is the intent and the resources.
I've always wondered why we don't cheat like the Dems do? If that's the way the game is played, let the fun begin. We're late to the game but it looks like we're finally ramping up the conservative lawfare effort. That bookie halftime pearl of wisdom applies to us.
We don't because we still have a modicum of morality and ethics........................and we don't want to be Democrats. If that ever changes, the country will be no more. Like the eternal battle between good and evil, there are always those that deceive and those that fight for their beliefs.
Polls and at the polls. My feeling is that Democrats have NOT legitimately won a national election in decades. They have always manipulated the inner city vote to swing elections.
Communicating effectively depends on clarity. Clarity dims when writers use bad grammar, punctuation and spelling -- and you just committed all three offenses, causing harm as well as foul.
There you go again-do you really think I don't know the difference between fowl and foul? You call it harm, I call it bad manners-Punctuation-your on you're own.
Aren't strippers the people work in pit mines recovering coal? You know, the guys who get to a titty bar, see a sign that says " no minors allowed" and file a grievance with the union?
This is how I feel all the time, the driver of my cognitive dissonance, like what the hell happened to our country?! : But bear in mind the news is all an illusion now. Maybe it always was.
They've lied for so long and I spent a lot of my life believing them. They did used to be better, like the old clips of outing Biden for lying about his grades in law school and plagiarizing. How anyone can believe them now is mind-blowing.
Another excellent column. It pierces the psychological warfare being directed at us all. And brings the substantive historical data to back it up. I never knew that about Newsweek having to scrap "125,000 copies of its souvenir Madam President issue".
We need to be much more aware of the psychological war being directed at all of us. It is probably FAR more sophisticated than we realize. Although the source and strategy of the attack is not visible to us, we should realize BY IT'S AFFECT that it is operating. For example, yesterday Don presented a brilliant idea of introducing several brief single-topic bills in Congress. But 90% of the commenters here responded negatively with pessimism, saying basically that all Republicans were RINOS and would never act on it.
Is that really OUR thought, or is it a manufactured psyops directed at us? First, one tip-off is that similar phrasing and statements were used by multiple commenters. We all have seen those mash-ups of how the liberal media covers a particular story-- with anchors and guests from multiple liberal networks all repeating the identical "buzzwords"--like they all got a memo to push that day's "narrative message" (e.g., "Joe Biden is 'sharp as a tack.") And, it's true, they DID all get a memo, and there finally has been some reporting about the organizations that are the sources of those memos.
Second, all the comments were directed at the Republicans, and lumped all the Republicans together as RINO's. But this is not reality--the Republican caucus is made up of 200+ individuals, among whom are MANY genuine and honorable conservative fighters. And even among RINO's, there is a continuum of "Rino-ness", with many Republicans thinking independently and often supporting conservative positions enough for those positions to triumph. I submit that it is a type of brainwashing for us to dump on the Republicans as a single RINO entity, and essentially deny the existence of any genuine conservative thinking and action there.
Third, it also is a type of psyops that we routinely fail to challenge the Democrats in Congress. We direct 95% of our wrath at the "generalized RINO Right", and are continually silent about the Hakeem Jeffries-lockstep robots on the Left. We never attack the Left, only complain about the "lack of purity" on the Right. We should be picking apart the Left, highlighting individual Democrats and putting heat on them--not always give them a pass.
I have been thinking alot about the multi-pronged sophisticated psychological and mental warfare being directed at all of us, but it would be too long to go into here today. But bear in mind that we all have been to some degree puzzled about how brainwashed the liberals have been. We all know many liberals--even in our own families--that are otherwise smart, well-functioning people, but when it comes to politics are hopelessly hypnotized. We can see the EFFECT--they ARE indeed brainwashed and intolerant of hearing anything that opposes their narrative. Behind this EFFECT, there must be a far more sophisticated psychological operation going on than we realize.
And we are naive if we think we on the Right are not also the target of a much more sophisticated operation than we realize. We KNOW that we have the numbers now--if there was a fair election, Trump will win by a landslide. We KNOW millions of people are waking up all over the place. We KNOW we are actually winning the culture wars now. And YET, we are drenched in pessimism and have to fight hard against fear and despair and depression. These are all tip-offs that we, too, are being psychologically manipulated.
We are not just in an information war, we are in a psychological war as well.
Each election cycle, I used to ask my poor patients who they liked in the election. Rich people’s votes are predictable: Lawyers et al favor Dems generally, Doctors generally support republicans. Obviously there are exceptions, yet poor people give me a sense of what common sense is saying. With Obama, the people loved him in 08/12 though some favored Romney in 12. In 16 it was 90%+ with Trump, there were a few Clinton supporters in the clinic, but I knew Trump had it. To me no surprise. Same in 20, there was zero.zero Biden supporters among the poor. That’s how I knew 20 was a fix. This year once again, there was zero support for the old Coot Biden and surprisingly none for Kankles Kamala. The people know. Unlike 20, if Trump loses from the anger out there I suspect a Louis XVI awaits those that install another usurper. FJB
Ah, the good days, 1791!
"JUST IN: Kamala Harris hits all-time high on political betting site Polymarket despite new polling data showing Trump outperforming himself compared to 2020."
If these polling/betting sites keep topping their previous score to make their headlines, they will run out of registered voters and kill their "perceived" legitimacy. Trump received 62M votes in 2016, 75M votes in 2020, which was exceeded by Biden's supposed 81M votes.
As these numbers explode, it is easier to understand why the Dems are importing so many illegals. They have to keep up this scam because their made-up fake votes will soon exceed the US voter population.
EVERYTHING is about money in the media and political world.............everything. Anyone who thinks that polling is not corrupted and targeted to a specific result is just not paying attention. As a marketing friend of mine puts it, words matter, and changing one word in a poll or marketing campaign can give you a different result. The only poll that matters is the one on election day.
I never heard of Polymarket until hearing Clay Travis discuss it. At first I thought this was going to be some sort of "wisdom of the crowd" platform. But after Act Blue's scam of hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in illegal donations by faking small dollar donations, I now think the Dims are likely manipulating this as well.
Believe it.
"Wasn’t that the NBA finals that Harry Enten said Trump had a better chance of winning than he did winning the presidency? He no longer works at 538. CNN hired him."
Harry's Entenna was broken.
The great equalizer was at work and I salute him. I just hope He has great plans for Nov 5th.
He does.
Excellent (but easy) poll. Nice salute to RLimbaugh, you're his successor.
I MISS RUSH!!! 😩 Another noontime arrives as a brutal reminder.
Spot on Lee !!
I’ll SuperSize that Big Mac with a Root Beer! FJB and FKingCharles3 (not the dog) limeys…
FKing- good one. Didju come up with that?
There is much talk about “fear porn”, etc, especially since c*vid. Poll Porn ranks right up there now in it’s own category. If the sheeple are barraged long enough with propaganda, including tiresome “polls”, they reckon it’ll wear us down. But when you cry wolf too many times, people stop listening.
Polls are like climate change models. They tell you what the poll taker wants the outcome to be by designing the questions or skewing the demographics.
I remember in 2016 having lunch with my depressed Democrat friend and telling him that his party will learn the lesson of the recount in Detroit where the first two wards they wanted to recount had 110% of the registered voters voted. The judge refused to let the recount go forward. I told him it was clear the Dems cheated but they believed the polls and didn’t cheat enough. They would not let that happen again. And so we had the funky 2020 counting. Will the Republicans learn this time?
I doubt we will learn anything from 2020. People believe what they want to believe and too many people are scared to admit that our sacred elections are able to be manipulated, so they pretend it isn't happening. But some of the manipulation is right in front of us. Zuckerberg spends $100M to help pay for elections in certain states. Really? They couldn't run elections in those states with the resources they already had via taxes? Come on folks, money buys elections today. It takes a billion dollars to elect a person president. Where did that money actually get spent?
Way to bring it Mr.Surber !! The msm is rolling out a new poll every day telling us cackles and tampon are steam rollers and we are asphalt so just lie down and take it. PDJT and JDV take questions anywhere ,anytime from anyone only to have the answers contorted and edited for release.Thank you,Elon, Tucker, and many others for the factual TRUTH and no-spin reminders the voters need to vote as if we are down by twenty %.Make this a MAGA too BIG to RIG victory and treats to Dr.Cat.
indeed - add Charlie Kirk to your factual truth, no-spin list
Agreed. I just hope that we have more lawyer poll watchers and ballot box video cameras than the Democrats do.
"Wasn’t that the NBA finals that Harry Enten said Trump had a better chance of winning than he did winning the presidency? He no longer works at 538. CNN hired him."
Harry's Entenna was broken.
Polls are academic and should be taken and viewed like any other statistic: with a large dollop of salt, as you point out above. The other problem is no one can poll all the dead people, illegal aliens, multiple episode voters, and machine hardware and software switching/deleting/adding features that are systemic to all machines who will be voting. My guess is that, with the exception of a few states and locales, the average "R" has to be leading by at least 7-10 points in the polling before the election to win.
Danny Huckabee
Polls that are run with scientific rigor to reduce sources of bias can provide predictive insight significantly better than a guess, but they are all lagging measures of attitude and opinion which can change in one day after the poll in response to a significant event.
There are many pollsters, most of whom aren’t worth a bowl of spit, but I believe one of the best managed polling organizations is Rasmussen Reports. Again, a poll reports PREVIOUSLY held opinions from days or weeks ago so take them with a grain of salt. But, there are a few good ones that are usable for trending analysis. I trust Rasmussen.
It's not what they poll, but whom they poll. With you on Rasmussen
And how they average party views by %.
"Wasn’t that the NBA finals that Harry Enten said Trump had a better chance of winning than he did winning the presidency? He no longer works at 538. CNN hired him."
Harry's Entenna was broken.
No human has ever been able to successfully predict a future outcome with 100% accuracy. But many humans have successfully affected a future outcome, both good and bad. All it takes is the intent and the resources.
I've always wondered why we don't cheat like the Dems do? If that's the way the game is played, let the fun begin. We're late to the game but it looks like we're finally ramping up the conservative lawfare effort. That bookie halftime pearl of wisdom applies to us.
We don't because we still have a modicum of morality and ethics........................and we don't want to be Democrats. If that ever changes, the country will be no more. Like the eternal battle between good and evil, there are always those that deceive and those that fight for their beliefs.
I grew up leaving things unlocked as i was taught locks only keep honest people honest/thus daring crooks to pry open locks.
Polls and at the polls. My feeling is that Democrats have NOT legitimately won a national election in decades. They have always manipulated the inner city vote to swing elections.
Did you mean to write: "My feeling is that Democrats have NOT legitimately won ..."?
Of course that is what he meant, Wim. It makes no sense otherwise.
Give it a rest, Wim.
One of my heroes wrote: Your distancing yourself. Pigs would have to fly before I corrected him/her. The King's English is no more-no harm, no fowl.
Communicating effectively depends on clarity. Clarity dims when writers use bad grammar, punctuation and spelling -- and you just committed all three offenses, causing harm as well as foul.
There you go again-do you really think I don't know the difference between fowl and foul? You call it harm, I call it bad manners-Punctuation-your on you're own.
Polls are for strippers, “where you drink champagne and it tastes just like coca cola, C-O-L-A, cola.” Or so I’ve been told.
Your distancing yourself from champaign is suspicious with a handle of “BubblePuppy”. . . But I believe you!
I cannot confirm nor deny my thirst for the aforementioned beverage.
OOF !
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Brilliant!!!!!!!
Aren't strippers the people work in pit mines recovering coal? You know, the guys who get to a titty bar, see a sign that says " no minors allowed" and file a grievance with the union?
Good one!
Rush had some other good ones to describe the lame stream media… Meet the Depressed was my favorite.
Now every evening my wife insists on watching ABC news with David Muir.
I just call it DNC propaganda as delivered by David Muir.
Yes, to all you say, Don Surber!
But Iooking through the lens of America’s glorious history, I’d say that when it comes to morale vs odds, guts and duty trump probabilities everytime.
“Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition.” - Lt Howell Forgy, Chaplain, USN, Pearl Harbor, Dec 7, 1941.
This is how I feel all the time, the driver of my cognitive dissonance, like what the hell happened to our country?! : But bear in mind the news is all an illusion now. Maybe it always was.
They've lied for so long and I spent a lot of my life believing them. They did used to be better, like the old clips of outing Biden for lying about his grades in law school and plagiarizing. How anyone can believe them now is mind-blowing.
Well done.. I love your writing. But I also always agree too. Down home truth.
Thank you :)
Another excellent column. It pierces the psychological warfare being directed at us all. And brings the substantive historical data to back it up. I never knew that about Newsweek having to scrap "125,000 copies of its souvenir Madam President issue".
We need to be much more aware of the psychological war being directed at all of us. It is probably FAR more sophisticated than we realize. Although the source and strategy of the attack is not visible to us, we should realize BY IT'S AFFECT that it is operating. For example, yesterday Don presented a brilliant idea of introducing several brief single-topic bills in Congress. But 90% of the commenters here responded negatively with pessimism, saying basically that all Republicans were RINOS and would never act on it.
Is that really OUR thought, or is it a manufactured psyops directed at us? First, one tip-off is that similar phrasing and statements were used by multiple commenters. We all have seen those mash-ups of how the liberal media covers a particular story-- with anchors and guests from multiple liberal networks all repeating the identical "buzzwords"--like they all got a memo to push that day's "narrative message" (e.g., "Joe Biden is 'sharp as a tack.") And, it's true, they DID all get a memo, and there finally has been some reporting about the organizations that are the sources of those memos.
Second, all the comments were directed at the Republicans, and lumped all the Republicans together as RINO's. But this is not reality--the Republican caucus is made up of 200+ individuals, among whom are MANY genuine and honorable conservative fighters. And even among RINO's, there is a continuum of "Rino-ness", with many Republicans thinking independently and often supporting conservative positions enough for those positions to triumph. I submit that it is a type of brainwashing for us to dump on the Republicans as a single RINO entity, and essentially deny the existence of any genuine conservative thinking and action there.
Third, it also is a type of psyops that we routinely fail to challenge the Democrats in Congress. We direct 95% of our wrath at the "generalized RINO Right", and are continually silent about the Hakeem Jeffries-lockstep robots on the Left. We never attack the Left, only complain about the "lack of purity" on the Right. We should be picking apart the Left, highlighting individual Democrats and putting heat on them--not always give them a pass.
I have been thinking alot about the multi-pronged sophisticated psychological and mental warfare being directed at all of us, but it would be too long to go into here today. But bear in mind that we all have been to some degree puzzled about how brainwashed the liberals have been. We all know many liberals--even in our own families--that are otherwise smart, well-functioning people, but when it comes to politics are hopelessly hypnotized. We can see the EFFECT--they ARE indeed brainwashed and intolerant of hearing anything that opposes their narrative. Behind this EFFECT, there must be a far more sophisticated psychological operation going on than we realize.
And we are naive if we think we on the Right are not also the target of a much more sophisticated operation than we realize. We KNOW that we have the numbers now--if there was a fair election, Trump will win by a landslide. We KNOW millions of people are waking up all over the place. We KNOW we are actually winning the culture wars now. And YET, we are drenched in pessimism and have to fight hard against fear and despair and depression. These are all tip-offs that we, too, are being psychologically manipulated.
We are not just in an information war, we are in a psychological war as well.
For fun, consider donating to the Gaza protesters headed to Chicago.
https://actionnetwork.org/fundraising/support-the-movement-of-the-people-march-on-the-dnc-2024
Just sent them $100
Gasoline on the fire!! Priceless.
Way to go, Frankie!