Trump economics works

Wages rise faster than inflation while the economy grows

Rick Santelli of CNBC reported that personal income increased 0.8% in April—“almost TRIPLE the expectations. Up 0.6% in January, up 0.7% in February, up 0.5% last month, up 0.8% this month. This is a GREAT four-month start to any year.”

Inflation slowed to 0.1%, bringing it down 2.1% on a year-to-year basis.

The income figures added up to an increase of 2.6% in the first 4 months alone.

You can tell Trump’s president because wages are rising faster than inflation.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve forecasts the growth in the economy will reach 3.8% in April, May and June.

Specifically, it said, “The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8% on May 30, up from 2.2% on May 27.”

But what about the price of eggs?

Eric Daugherty tweeted, “Egg prices have now declined 62% since President Trump's inauguration day. They were $6.55. They are now $2.52 per dozen.”

But—and this is the most important thing in the financial world—what about Don Surber? How is he doing with his portfolio, which consists solely of shares of the Vanguard S&P 500 Index?

Up 6.3% in May. That’s the best month of May for the index in 35 years.

For the rest of you, the Wall Street Journal reported, “The U.S. trade deficit for goods shrank substantially in April, as new tariffs weighed on imports.

“Goods imports fell by 20% to $276.1 billion, while exports rose 3.4% to $188.5 billion, the Commerce Department said.

“It was the biggest one-month drop in goods imports on record.”

Exports rose while imports dropped by one-fifth.

Despite the huge drop in imports, Newsweek reported, “As of May 30, the U.S. is on pace to set a new monthly record in tariff revenue—nearly $23 billion, about three times the amount collected in May 2024.”

Whoever said you cannot win a trade war is a big, fat, lying loser.

On April 7, CNBC reported, “CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on Monday that although he believes an economic recession is on the horizon, investors should stay the course rather than panic and sell.”

OK, he’s not that fat. He’s just husky.

But while buy-and-hold is my strategy too, if you bought, you would be up 6% (on average) am I not right?

Even after the biggest drop in the trade deficit, my favorite Nobel Prize laureate in economics (that would be Paul Krugman), wrote on Friday, “Punitive tariffs on everyone, including the penguins of uninhabited islands, have been one of the Trump administration’s signature policies, along with epic corruption and abductions by masked men claiming to be federal agents. All of these policies have involved blatant violations of the letter of the law, its spirit, or both. But there has been very little effective pushback.

“So it came as a shock yesterday when the United States Court of International Trade suddenly ruled that almost everything Trump has been doing on tariffs is illegal. The Court is clearly right on the merits. But I, like many observers, thought that we were past the point where the merits of cases mattered. It’s gratifying to learn that I was wrong.”

An appellate court blocked the trade court’s ruling. So much for Krugman’s assertion that it is illegal for Trump to deliver on his campaign promise to bring down the trade deficit.

We voted for this. Just because a judge (in this case, three) does not like a policy does not make it unconstitutional or even illegal.

The Trump economic plan is built on a solid foundation and steel.

His best chronicler, Salena Zito, wrote of his trip to Pittsburgh on Friday:

Local steelworkers, community leaders, and economic experts said President Donald Trump’s announcement Friday that a deal was struck between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel will go down in American history as the most enduring economic “big, beautiful deal” the 47th president has made.

It is a deal robustly supported by the rank-and-file steelworkers from the three plants that make up the Mon Valley Works. The deal is believed to reverse the decline of steel that began under President Jimmy Carter in the 1970s.

“I am proud to announce that, after much consideration and negotiation, U.S. Steel will REMAIN in America and keep its headquarters in the Great City of Pittsburgh,” said Trump, who had been engaged in intense negotiations over a sale between the iconic American company and Nippon Steel.

“This will be a planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel and the largest investment in the history of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania,” he said.

Trump used the power of anti-trust law to get Nippon Steel to invest in U.S. Steel. Congress empowered presidents to do this over a century ago and Trump uses that power for the public good.

Zito also wrote:

The deal preserves U.S. Steel’s headquarters in the iconic Pittsburgh skyscraper, the tallest building in Appalachia, and the company will maintain its production locations and capacity in the United States. As part of the agreement, American jobs are protected and cannot be offshored.

The deal also guarantees that the majority of U.S. Steel’s board must be U.S. citizens, and key management, including the CEO, will also all be U.S. citizens. The deal outlines that U.S. Steel’s trade actions will be determined solely by U.S. citizens, with oversight from the U.S. government, and free from any interference.

Trump left it to workers and management to turn U.S. Steel back into a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It employs 22,000 people—down from 340,000 at its peak in 1943.

Those jobs are not coming back but those 22,000 jobs are more likely to remain and maybe grow a little.

Thanks to Donald Trump, those workers are getting the opportunity to grow. He is raising tariffs on steel imports from the current 25% to 50%.

As for oil prices, well the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported, “Trump returned to office determined to bring oil prices below $60 per barrel and has sought supply increases from both Saudi Arabia and the domestic U.S. oil and gas industry. One is well-positioned to deliver; the other can’t, even if it wanted to.”

How is that going?

5 days before his inauguration, oil producers rolled out the barrel at $78.71 per barrel.

That was down to $60.71 on Saturday, a nice 30% drop in 4 months. He’s 72 cents from another promise kept.

As for oil production, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia is increasing production of oil. Another promise kept.

Trump has closed the border. Locked it down. Put human traffickers out of business. Promise made, promise kept and now to deport the illegals.

He did this despite Politico warning on Inauguration Day, “Americans hate high prices. Mass deportations could spark new surges.”

That didn’t happen, of course. What did surge was his popularity. Throughout his first presidency, pollsters told us consistently, 53% of the country disapproved of his job performance.

Now 53% of voters approve.

America elected a billionaire president after 4 years of an idiot crook with dementia who got lost in his own closet.

The results of the 2024 election are excellent. For now.

We’ll see how this works out but one thing is for sure. No president has done as well for the economy since Reagan.