192 Comments
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Steve (recovering lawyer)'s avatar

Much of the market decline is due to panic selling, fueled by screaming headlines and talking heads on "the news" whose only concern is to see that President Trump is prevented from saving the country from permanent decline. All these media "citizens of the world" are champing at the bit to see America turned into the second or third rate country Obama so ardently desired. Rememer when he said he wanted to "fundamentally transform" America? Idiot fanboys thought he meant for the better, but he wanted the opposite. Were it not for Trump, he would have gotten his wish. He still may unless we all get behind The President and work with him to turn back the tide of opposition to Mak(ing) America Great Again.

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EODMom's avatar

I think the market run was started by the globalists who want to short the US and its Presidency and get back to a money laundering routine fed by US debt. It’s not hard to start a panic, but tough to turn it off. I’m glad the faux welfare is being exposed, if not wholly cut and that the tariff imbalance may be corrected. Meanwhile I have to pray for patience and calm during uncertainty.

The US should have had the guts to turn off the post WWII charity before it spawned the corruption machines running the NGOs. The developed countries didn’t mind a little colonialist dollars if it meant their upper crusts could collect US dollars to finance their socialist attitudes. No one loves you because you give them money. The undeveloped countries for sure don’t want our LBGTRSTUVw weird sex or environmental piety that kept them from clean water and power.

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Joseph Kaplan's avatar

Not that I know anything. But. I think the panic is about over. The market has hit the low point where it’s full bargains if you understand that stuff and have a bundle to play with. Which I don’t. Just watch. Don’t bet against the Trump/musk team. There never been a pair like them.

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revmaddog1948's avatar

Agreed.

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From the Beach...🌞🇧🇷🏖️🌊🐬🌎😎's avatar

A welcomed narrative. Thank you.

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Adorable Deplorable's avatar

Wall Street had their run. Now it is Main Street's turn.

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donald b welch's avatar

have a great friend who was about to dump his entire portfolio so myself and another friend talked him out of it for now. i said: "here's some investing advice....stop watching david muir on abc". at least he laughed and that was good to see.

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LuAnn's avatar

Stock markets go up and down. If you have stocks, you need to accept that. Sit tight and wait out the turbulence. DJT is never wrong.

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BubblePuppy7's avatar

Watch what Jim Cramer does and says. He’s pretty consistent in getting things bass-ackwards.

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Wim de Vriend's avatar

I've never quite understood why he shouts so much, unless it is to make his audience ignore his advice, simply to avoid the pain.

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BubblePuppy7's avatar

Well, he IS an Excitable Boy.

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LuAnn's avatar

Exactly, Bubble.

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Ellie G's avatar

And always remember—for every seller there is a BUYER. So if you become a Panican and sell at the bottom you just made somebody else a bundle.

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Joseph Kaplan's avatar

I’d go a step further and cut his cable altogether. We did that in Nov 2020. So much free time to do other things.

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PatriciaFairbank's avatar

Poised to do the same, Joseph. Cable companies have a monopoly where I live. We need a Teddy to straighten them out. Internet is all you need anyway to access what you are interested in.

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CactusMatt32's avatar

We have loved moving from Charter to Youtube TV. More money for our Google stock holdings...

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CactusMatt32's avatar

Uncle Sam would have liked that - a dip down and you sell & trigger 20% Cap Gains tax! Always gotta remember your silent 'partner' that 'is here to help you'......

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Playswithneedles's avatar

Thank you for getting the word ”champing” correctly. Almost no one does.

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Shrugged's avatar

I learn something here everyday.

I would have said 'chomping' but the origin - and most correct term - is 'champing'. Thanks to the both of you for the lesson.

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marbucks's avatar

I’m not following all this, but I’m impressed.

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CactusMatt32's avatar

You can also use a chamfer bit on a router to shave off sharp edges, but you would probably break your teeth if you chomped on it.

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PatriciaFairbank's avatar

I know, it is tempting. And , thanks.

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Wim de Vriend's avatar

My big ole Webster's says that both can be used, champing and chomping.

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VICKI's avatar

That's only because dictionary people have succumbed to the dopes of today who say stupid things that are incorrect just to please the woke gen.

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Wim de Vriend's avatar

It's true that people who compile dictionaries record verbiage that is "incorrect" by somebody's standard, but if a variation of a common word or expression gains usage, that's their job. Just consider all the changes in the English language since 1066, when the French-speaking Normans took over most of the country and its government, with the result that before long more than 50% of English vocabulary was of French origin. I'm sure that many of the Normans disagreed with the way the conquered natives pronounced THEIR lingo; they may well have made fun of it, but such developments are largely unstoppable.

If you have ever watched "My Fair Lady", you may have realized that Henry Higgins, who worshipped "the science of speech" largely fought windmills ...

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VICKI's avatar

YES, what you say is true but making slang into common usage just doesn't sit well with me. Personal preference.

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Wim de Vriend's avatar

I do agree that Americans today use a lot of words that listeners would have taken exception to, not that long ago. But what can you do?

It's like trying to stop the waves rolling in; it won't work, not even on the polluted ones.

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Jeremy R's avatar

You won't lose a dime if you don't sell. At one point during the depression, my grandfather held stock that paid a dividend higher than the share price. He'd been advised to sell but decided it wasn't worth the effort.

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Jim Nelson's avatar

Just remember that the policies by the government related to the Covid pandemic did more harm to our economy and the nation than anything I can think of in my lifetime. And yet, America has pretty well recovered from that cluster f**k. We are a resilient nation and despite the doomsayers in the media and elsewhere, this too shall pass and we will emerge stronger than ever.

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Ted Angell's avatar

“Be American. Buy American.” Bentleys are built in which state? 😛

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Shoveltusker's avatar

Bentley Motors announced this morning that because of tariffs, they are going to build a plant in Davis, West Virginia.

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VICKI's avatar

I heard it was Poca, WV

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Wim de Vriend's avatar

I seem to remember a remark by Bernard Baruch, a famous investor and presidential adviser: "The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible."

If you give it a moment's thought, inflation is married to the stock market because as producers raise prices, their revenues do increase on paper even if not in reality, and this will tend to increase dividends and stock prices as well.

Just more evidence that inflation-generated prosperity is an illusion, and we've had plenty of that.

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NNTX's avatar

Check out the "Truflation" metric (new to me, based on 30M+ metrics and calculated daily). Down to 1.46...

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Wim de Vriend's avatar

I' not familiar with it, but the results of those calculations will vary according to the weight assigned to the various things that people buy. For example, if the price of Coca Cola goes up, some people will feel it in their wallets, or their Food Stamp cards, but I won't because I never touch that crap. Wine, on the other hand ...

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NNTX's avatar

Last week's sell-off was also fueled by those covering margin calls. Much of the highs of recent months were fueled by borrowing.

For perspective, the October 1987 stock market downturn clipped 22% from the market. That would be around 35000 Dow going by the high earlier this year (44,682) . The 1987 downturn from about 7200 to 5200 took until mid 1991 to recover former levels.

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telephoneman's avatar

yup, margin accts are very expensive at these interest levels

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NNTX's avatar

Even worse is when the value of the holdings aren't sufficient to cover the margin call (understanding that the lenders require a cushion).

With this level of market decline a number of the more risky traders find themselves "naked"

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Steve Boggs's avatar

Love the Mar-a-lago tidbit at the end. Only thing in this I can truly say I understand, except:

1) Trump should stay the course

2) VDH has the best handle on the big picture.

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Shrugged's avatar

The most recent post by VDH explaining free trade and tariffs needs to be heard by all, although I am sure most readers here have viewed it. The most important take-away is that Trump didn't cause the trade imbalance. Trump is FIXING the trade imbalance with reciprocal tariffs that cancel those levied by other countries against us.

Trump didn't start a trade war. He is ending it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrTBU7Nsdus

(May have to skip through the ad to get to VDH)

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CactusMatt32's avatar

When I worked for Samsung Telecom, they had just secured a huge deal with Sprint selling them about $75 million in phones a month. Their production engineers in Korean are probably the best - once they started producing in quantity, they had absolutely no defects per 100,000. They knew the US was THE market to be in, and they fought greatly to be here, however when it came to Motorola selling in Korea....that was not gonna happen.

Trump is SPOT ON about the world's preeminent companies MUST have access to the World's largest market - the US. We've been letting them in for free (just "hire" a few Senator or Congressmens' kids or whatnot) and the US manufacturers get stiffed from their market.

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Steve Boggs's avatar

Thank you, Shrugged. Good move!

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From the Beach...🌞🇧🇷🏖️🌊🐬🌎😎's avatar

Correct, Sir . Thank you .

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PatriciaFairbank's avatar

VDH, the calm voice of the common man of uncommon intellect. He clarifies big issues like no other analyst. The very thought of a San Joaquin farmer/ Stanford professor warms my heart.

I grew up in Stockton when it was an American Graffiti college town…met my future husband, a handsome Marine Sgt newly returned from Korea, at Dick’s Drive-in. I had my first job out of HS as a GS3 civil service worker at Sharpe’s U.S. Army Medical Maintenance Depot just down the road. I still lived at home and handed my paycheck over to my mother who divied out enough for 2 week’s expenses to give me a sense of what life on my own would cost. The 50’s were golden in post WWII small town America. I did not know anyone without a job and we still dressed in our best for church on Sunday. My folks had bought a house in a new bedroom community, “College View” where my stay -at-home mom (and proud of it) was thrilled to have a house no one else had lived in; where she and dad could plant their lawn, flower and vegetable garden and have the home they dreamed of with Dad’s new ‘55 Chevy in the garage. There was peace in the Valley for most middle class Americans.

Stockton today has fallen as so many have into a gang riddled Meth induced nightmare. As one Hispanic visitor confessed (escaping the stifling valley summer heat to the foggy central coast is a given), ‘he keeps a legal gun in every room for fast access bc of the gang crime’. A shock to me as he lives in what once was the wealthy district of town. Sadly I heard that Dick’s Drive-in, long out of vogue, became a dry cleaner. It’s a heartbreaking sign of the times that President Trump has pledged to change…not fundamentally but for better.

God bless POTUS DJT and Farmer VDH. At the inaugural party tenor Christopher Machino sang ‘O, America (I hear you calling)’ and I wept hearing the lyrics so perfectly descriptive of their mission to save America…and us.

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Cookie McCall's avatar

I also grew up in small town America in the 50’s. We were so innocent then and always felt safe. Ride to school on our bikes, play with kids in the neighborhood, of course, dress in our best for church every Sunday and we wore hats & gloves. I wouldn’t trade that for anything!

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Don Reed's avatar

04/08/25: Bravo! and my condolences.

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Don Reed's avatar

Poor Ack-Ack. He had visions (hallucinations) of his lox and onion bagels in the Hamptons this summer costing him $175 each, and wet his little knickers.

How long will it take before Ack-Ack turns into This Guy?:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/scaramucci-sets-new-record-shortest-term-communications-director-n788281

So. Where is Sammy Davis Junior, West Virginia? Sounds like a fun place to visit.

Speaking of Mar-a-Lago: this biography's highly recommended.

It's the type of book --- well-written, well-edited and competently created, physically --- that started to disappear after 1995 as the number of publishers decreased as the result of Frankenstein-inspired mergers and Armageddonite-acquisitions:

"American Empress, The Life & Times of Marjorie Merriweather Post" [1887-1973], by Nancy Rubin; Villard Books [Random House] (1995 hardcover).

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Damn the torpedoes's avatar

Oh ye of little faith, Bill Ackman…I liked Bill when he banged Harvard Hamas over the head, but guys like him get their ketamine injections from watching the ticker tape. Trump is less worried about Wall Street and more worried about Main Street-he wants the Main Streets of America back. The ones that had parades and children waving flags on the curbs, not reading Gender Queer in perv libraries. Bill should start a move to divest from universities and invest in trade schools—we’re going to need skilled labor for all those manufacturing jobs coming back to help spruce up Main Street. Wall Street is a con game played by floor traders who control the ups and downs. They make money when it goes up, and when it goes down. I only buy stocks of companies that make products I use. I trust Trump. He told us it would be a bumpy road, and he only has until the midterms to get us to where voters feel the difference a tariff makes. I’m riding with the Orange Man, and most of us out here know what’s in store for us if we stay the course. Trust Trump.

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Douglas Baringer's avatar

Stop with the nervous overreactions. We have overcome worse things than Bill Ackman flip flopping on Trump. The Lord says Do not fear, for I am in control. God didn't save DJT as a stunt. He is telling us to trust this man.

80 years after beating the daylights out of the Axis, we are still propping them up and being denigrated for it. We are still the most generous nation ever, but it is time to stop being chumps.

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Shrugged's avatar

"Trump is less worried about Wall Street and more worried about Main Street-he wants the Main Streets of America back."

I think Trump knows he needs every one of those Main Street voters in the short time we have running up to the midterms. The Dems taking just a few seats in the House in 2026 could be as deadly to his mission as a lone shooter in Butler, PA.

The recent supreme court race in Wisconsin shows us elections are NOT secure and leftists still call the shots in many precincts and states. 2026 will be much tougher than 2024.

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Neera Goitein's avatar

Very succinctly put, Damn the torpedoes. That’s a fine moniker. And full speed ahead!

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Larry B's avatar

Tom Petty-No I won't back down... And we are not, even in the face of gigantic losses.

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Suzie's avatar

👍

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TeaPartyGal's avatar

Superb column today; very meaty. I'm totally with you--Stay The Course on tariffs, DOGE, and everything else. The Left is screaming, and because it has nothing else to offer, is trying to make a mountain out of a molehill by pumping up a narrative that the economy is in trouble. Yes, an economy does have a "psychological element", and the Left is trying to create a negative psychological "belief trend" in order to panic people and undercut Trump. But the US financial condition has been in crisis for a long time, and Biden had brought us to the brink. Trump is fixing it. Yay; and good.

One overwhelming point I take from this, is that Bill Ackman needs to take a serious dose of humility. Bill Ackman was so "celebrated" for waking up enough to buck the "wealthy liberal" mindset and come out in support of Trump. Good for him. But it "went to his head" and he seems to think he's some smart and wise person. But he was SERIOUSLY SLOW to wake up. So he is NOT anywhere near as smart as he thinks he is.

The rest of America was WAY ahead of Bill Ackman and woke up years ago, even well more than a decade ago. Bill Ackman has cold feet because he is a "newbie", and is still something of a babe in the woods when it comes to understanding politics in the 21st century. So chill, Ackman. Watch and learn.

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TeaPartyGal's avatar

Actually, although Elon Musk is far, far ahead of Bill Ackman, and has become downright heroic and awesome, Elon is also somewhat of a newbie too. He only got red-pilled just before he bought Twitter. He's been a very quick learner, but I would not yet be comfortable with Elon becoming President after Trump, because there is still more depth Elon needs to gain.

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MartyB's avatar

Elon wasn’t born in the USA, so this is as close as he gets to the Presidency. I don’t make the rules.

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Epstein Did Not Kill Himself's avatar

True, but Obama got away with it.

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BubblePuppy7's avatar

Obama is a Democrat.

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Playswithneedles's avatar

And sort of black.

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VICKI's avatar

Right and our first black president (big eye roll) is sort of, er, ah, half white so he's not really black, right? If the one that birthed ya' is white as snow, what DOES that make you?

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Wim de Vriend's avatar

Aside from Musk being constitutionally ineligible, why do we propose everybody who becomes famous to run for president? I remember when that idiot Schwarzenegger was being proposed -- and it was a good thing he was ineligible also.

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PatriciaFairbank's avatar

How right you are, Wim! Arnold won bc California’s recall process is a joke.

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Wim de Vriend's avatar

Not living in California, I don't remember that part. Did he win because someone else was recalled?

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PatriciaFairbank's avatar

Yes, it’s been awhile but I think it was Gray Davis…sorry no time this a.m to look. Anyone and everyone that can pay the filing fee can run for the special election so you get a motley crew of strippers, junk men, jokers, etc., to muddy the water. I do remember it was a long list and Arnie, the well known philanderer, was the most recognizable name. Hollywood behind the camera had lot’s of insider stories about the public vulgarities of pump me up Arnold. He’s disgusting. Maria was not blind nor were/are any of the Kennedy women. It runs in the family. Hopefully RFK, Jr. has recovered from the trauma of the assassinations.

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Cookie McCall's avatar

I want JD to follow Trump for 2 terms

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donald b welch's avatar

i can see trump as noem's sec of state.

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John Swindall's avatar

I was hoping that Bill Ackman was still following up after having his wife unfairly smeared by accusations of plagiarism. I thought his group was hunting the frauds in macadamia (nutty institutions) by having AI crawl over their Curriculum vita exposing all the nonsense submitted by all the so-called experts.

I was hoping for a doge like report from Mr. Ackman on what he has discovered. Hope rhymes with…

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Shoveltusker's avatar

Upvote for "macadamia".

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Irunthis1's avatar

Dope? Misanthrope?

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John Swindall's avatar

But like Trump, Musk and yours truly. I love humanity.

So dope.

Like dope and change

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marbucks's avatar

Macadamia and champing/chomping today. Illuminating, not distracting from, the big picture.

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Suzie's avatar

Hah! You tell him, TPG! Love it! ♥️👍

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Brian LeMay's avatar

Agree ; best I can tell he has never had a job . His wealth appears to be all on somebody else's labors .

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Suzie's avatar

First thing to remember in the midst of the current economic shake-up:

The media are liars, have an agenda, and are certifiably stupid. There’s is no more reason to believe them on anything, much less their “takes” on the tariff policy than there has been for the last 30 years. Find other sources.

The billionaire class of “Ackman-types” are scared, and that should come as zero surprise to anyone. They’ve made big bank on the FALSE economy for decades. That party is now coming to an end, and they’ll have to earn their money the legit way now.

The ENTIRE World Economy has been built on sand, with fake and fabulist finagling creating a false front. Behind the curtain, the most fraudulent money laundering operation in history has been taking place. Here’s an example:

In 2020, every single Democrat run city and state was dangerously deep in the red. Had Trump won, they’d all have had to face a reckoning and been forced to make dramatic changes to their socialist programs and policies to avoid bankruptcy, (think of what happened to Detroit on a much larger, multiple city/state scale).

But enter Covid, and a stolen election, and suddenly money flowed out from the Federal government like a fire hose and propped up all those Democrat states and cities. That was American taxpayer money, adding to the deficit, putting us on bullet train toward national bankruptcy. Now magnify that financial wizardry onto the entire world. That’s what took place - fake money flowing like a river, propping up governments all over the world. That’s where we are today. It is unsustainable and deadly.

When your kid has been eating junk food all his life, and suddenly you put an apple in front him instead he’s not going to be happy. It’ll a take a while, but he’ll adjust, and be a heck of a lot better off for it in the long run.

And it’s the “long run” that has our spoiled culture weaned on “instant gratification” freaked out. They want what they want, and they want it now. It’s is a false sense of reality that has created impatient brats, who want everything immediately, but don’t want to work for it, and don’t want to disrupt the status quo. How’s that worked out for us?

Deep down, and well into every person’s individual life and lifestyle each one of us is now being touched by the efforts of this President to right this ship of state, working to steer us away from certain ruin. Everyone has serious skin in this game. But it is not a game. It is a hard and fast turn of the entire world away from the edge of a cliff.

We need to buckle up and hold on. And prevent the panicking and fearful from hijacking it again.

A lot of things are at play, all at once, on this course the President has now charted, and it will require an enormous amount of unity and courage, more than at any other time in history, for people to support it, to help to see to it that it succeeds. This is no time for cowards. Believe me, the alternatives are far worse than can even be conceived.

Stay the course. Calmer waters are ahead.

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Shoveltusker's avatar

"fake and fabulist finagling creating a false front"

Upvote for alliteration.

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Don Burgundy's avatar

As Veruca Salt famously sang, “Don’t care how, I Want It Now.”

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Adorable Deplorable's avatar

Not so sure about a "friendly" Congress. This is about the time when the back stabbing RINO's rear their ugly head.

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geraldsd's avatar

Oh I hate the RINOS…

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donald b welch's avatar

do they ever NOT? murkowski and collins can be counted on to always fail. it's in their dna.

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Playswithneedles's avatar

“The market’s response is due to the fear that if this strategy fails and the tariffs stay in place, they will plunge our economy into a recession.”

If that happens, will the enemedia and the demonicrats (but I repeat myself) change the definition of “recession” back to what it was before Pedo Joe caused one?

That’s a rhetorical question, BTW.

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Kevin C.'s avatar

If tariffs are bad for an economy, why do 170 countries have tariffs on U.S. products?

Things that make you say, hmm.🤔

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Brian LeMay's avatar

Well put ! Nothing like simple logic . I see more lefty heads exploding 😁 .

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MLR's avatar

“ “The distribution of equities across households: the top 10% of Americans own 88% of equities—88% of the stock market.”

That is a fact, but it is also a fact that the stock market finances businesses. That’s where companies get operating and expansion capital. If companies can’t get financing they start to fire employees to reduce expenses. You can guess what happens next. Unemployment and recession. The hope is that Trumps tariff policies are a short term mechanism to rebalance our out of balance economy. It should not be seen as a class war here but rather a foreign war to achieve fair trade.

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EODMom's avatar

It’s certainly one source of financing. They are alert to balance capital (stock) with debt (3rd party financing.) Investors like high EPS and lenders like low debt ratios. Right now public companies are in blackout period for 1st quarter reporting. Otherwise they would surely be doing beaucoups of stock buy backs. I believe the data in recent years indicates that stock buybacks are the biggest source of demand in the stock market. It would have blunted the momentum and scope of the plunge I think and maybe limit the rush into margin call range.

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LuAnn's avatar

In about 48 hours, Bill Ackman did an about face. I read his post on Friday, which was very suportive of tariffs and Trump's strategy on them, and I thought that was a really good take. Why the change? My guess is that over the weekend, he had a lot of friends and family challenge him and no one likes their reputation to be challenged. Then he started to think about money he could lose because he's a hedge fund guy after all. Put those two things together and Bill went all wobbly. It makes sense. And he only recently swallowed at least part of the red pill as in supporting Trump for president and he was getting some heartburn. The measure of a person is their resolve. Bill has been found to be wanting. Not good.

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LuAnn's avatar

You're most welcome, Beach. Hope the weather is good!

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From the Beach...🌞🇧🇷🏖️🌊🐬🌎😎's avatar

A bit of rain earlier today in northeast Brasil. Slightly overcast skies remain. Air temperature 🌡️ presently 80 degrees Fahrenheit. 🏖️👍

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Epstein Did Not Kill Himself's avatar

Unfortunately, business leaders of today don't have the intestinal fortitude of their parents or grandparents. Many of today's affluent citizens inherited their fortunes from their innovative, hardworking, and brave parents. How many have witnessed the successful small business passed onto the children or grandchildren and then run into the ground?

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donald b welch's avatar

most windows sell off as soon as pops passes. not all not all not all as jesse lee peterson would say.

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PM's avatar

'The United States has a chance to do something that should have been done decades ago. Don't be weak. Don't be stupid. Don't be a Panican (formerly the Dimocrat party). Be strong, courageous and patient and Greatness will be the result. DJT a few minutes ago.

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Kevin Menard's avatar

On chasing tail: Don, at any age of 65, it's all catch and release.

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Don Surber's avatar

LOL

You just like the chase

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Kevin Menard's avatar

Well, yes

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jimok's avatar

Gee Don, long intense post today. I had to take a break cuz I couldn’t hold my breath that long. Trying times, but I’m hangin in with ya!

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Don Surber's avatar

Maybe I should have cut it in two

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TeaPartyGal's avatar

No, it was a work of art just the way it stands.

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tzed's avatar

I find it interesting that when I looked at the futures this morning they were all down over 5% for the three major indexes. They are now all down less than 2%.

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Adorable Deplorable's avatar

Yup. Think they are realizing Trump cannot be intimidated so why beat themselves up for no reason.

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geraldsd's avatar

Maybe, maybe not…

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Shrugged's avatar

Don't forget the 1929 crash was caused by Wall Street not the Feds.

(Although, the Feds caused it to last for a decade).

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donald b welch's avatar

i noticed that also. never know however. i would say give it all 'till may 1st.

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tzed's avatar

Yes. They are going further negative as we speak but seem less volatile. Time will tell.

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LeftyMudersbach's avatar

I don’t know about anyone else but when I voted for Trump I expected all of what he’s doing. I am ecstatic with 99% of his actions.

People generally hate change almost as much as public speaking. Add in the grifter ngo’s, democrat hangers on’ers, democrat consultants, law firms, universities and other unidentified leaches, and of course they will trot out every expert/pundit to try and control the narrative.

What’s different this time is Trump. He doesn’t care, isn’t worried about re-election, is pissed off about how they attacked him in his first term and after and doesnt give a s@&$. It’s almost beyond belief (meant in a good way).

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