Democrats are blowing it
Taking back the House should be a gimme. It isn’t.
History says it would take a miracle for Republicans to hold onto the House. Presidential parties lose seats in the House at midterms. There are a few exceptions. Backlash from the Lewinsky impeachment gained seats for Democrats and 4 years later, tough action on 9/11 earned Bush’s party extra seats.
But come on. Republicans have a 5-vote edge.
Democrats re-taking the House is what golfers call a gimme. They just pick up the ball without bothering to putt.
In the last 5 midterms, Bush lost 30 seats, Obama lost 63 seats and then 13, Trump lost 41, and Biden lost 9—an average net loss of 31 seats.
31 minus 5 equals Hakeem Jeffries as the first communist Speaker of the House.
Not so fast, my friend. Never bet against The Donald.
The Supreme Court’s decision to finally apply the 14th Amendment to LBJ’s Voting Rights Act of 1965. I don’t see how this helps Republicans because districts that were 90% Democrat will suddenly free voters to vote in districts where Republicans had an edge. We’ll see how this works out.
I also wonder if the redistricting by red states will backfire. Best laid plans and all that.
But the NAACP is upset. AP reported:
The NAACP is calling on black athletes and fans to boycott the athletic programs of public universities in states that are taking steps that the nation’s oldest civil rights group says are restricting black voting rights.
Launched on Tuesday, the “Out of Bounds” campaign urges prospective black athletes, their families, alumni and fans to “withhold athletic and financial support” from major public universities in states that “have moved to limit, weaken or erase black voting representation.”
So they are going to boycott Grambling State in Louisiana.
The court decision cost no one of any color their vote.
The reason the Congressional Black Caucus is so livid is that without solidly safe Democrat districts, it is difficult to get communists into Congress. Consider AOC. In 2018, she primary-ed Joseph Crowley, the then-Chairman of the House Democrat Caucus.
Communists targeted Crowley because turnout is low in primaries. AOC was young, female and Hispanic—the perfect candidate to promote against an old white guy. That she was dumber than having Rachel Zegler play Snow White goes without saying, but I will anyway.
Hank Johnson’s inability to understand that islands don’t float got him into Congress because the last thing communists want is a person who can think for himself.
The court striking down segregated districts will result in the loss of a dozen communist congressmen, which should detoxify the House a smidgen or two.
If they are replaced with Republicans, that is even better.
Democrat support from Republicans will drop by one.
Last night, Republican voters in Kentucky flipped the state’s 4th congressional district (suburban Louisville and suburban Cincinnati with points in between) red by booting incumbent Thomas Massie to the curb.
Trump endorsed Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and fifth-generation farmer, defeated Massie, the self-styled libertarian. If he’s a libertarian, he should run in that party, whose big issue now is raw milk.
He actually introduced a bill to allow unpasteurized milk to be transported from state to state. We have immigrants who cannot read or speak English driving 18 wheelers the wrong way—and the gentleman from Kentucky’s biggest concern about transportation is protecting the shipment of raw milk across state lines.
Gallrein should win the general election because Trump carried the district in 2024, 67%-31% over Harris.
Massie voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the ICE funding bill and co-authored with Democrat Ro Khanna a resolution to end Operation Epic Fury prematurely.
4th district voters did not return President Trump to the Oval Office to have their very own congressman block his agenda.
In the Senate, John Fetterman stopped the Massie resolution by siding with the president. He also cast the deciding committee vote that cleared the way to Senate of America’s Plumber, Markwayne Mullin, as secretary of Homeland Security.
Massie is the only House candidate Trump wanted primary-ed.
Earlier Dan Crenshaw wore out his welcome in Texas. Feuding with Trump and his supporters came with a price. Going Nancy Pelosi on insider trading didn’t help either.
Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn are senators. Republicans primary-ed Cassidy on Saturday. Next, Cornyn gets his. Thomas Whitaker had a hot take on the race to replace Mitch McConnell in the Senate.
Mitch McConnell spent 41 years building the most powerful Republican machine in the Senate. He blocked nominees, killed legislation, outlasted six presidents and bent the entire GOP caucus to his will for four decades.
And the moment he stepped back, Trump walked in on May 1st, endorsed Andy Barr, offered the only real rival an ambassadorship and the rival dropped out the same week.
While Trump racked up wins on Tuesday, voters punched out Obama again. CNN reported, “Conservative incumbents defend seats on Georgia Supreme Court.”
The story said, “Former President Barack Obama endorsed the liberal candidates, former Democratic state Sen. Jen Jordan and personal injury attorney Miracle Rankin, while two-term GOP Gov. Brian Kemp threw his support behind the incumbents, with his leadership PAC dropping $500,000 on the race.”
Retirements and congressmen seeking higher office hit 57. I doubt any will flip parties because most seats are safe now.
The Cook Report now has the House race dead even:
Solid Democrat: 184
Likely Democrat: 11
Lean Democrat: 12
Toss-Up: 18
Lean Republican: 5
Likely Republican: 17
Solid Republican: 188
That’s odd since some of the redistricting is incomplete. And it may be click baiting by Cook. But Nate Silver has Democrats gaining 6.6 seats. Massie’s loss knocks off the 0.6, right?
Do not overlook an October surprise. Trump’s theatrics and timing are impeccable. He waited until after the Super Bowl and the Winter Olympics to unleash Operation Epic Fury.
The line of primary night was tweeted by Meghan McCain:
Shoutout to Tucker Carlson who is 0 for 5 in candidate endorsements!
President Trump went 8-0 on Tuesday.
Obama went 0-2.
Brit Hume summed up the state of America today: “We have a Republican Party, which is by and large afraid to buck Trump and a Democrat Party that’s afraid not to. That describes our politics.”
Hume nailed it like he was Martin Luther in Wittenberg.
As for Congress, the key figure Cook gave is 18. Out of 435 House contests, the experts believe only 4% are actual races.
We shall see what voters do.
Last night, they did in Massie.
The smart Democrats — yes, the term is an oxymoron — are not running on Trump hate anymore because Trump hate only plays in districts somewhere on the outskirts of Moscow. The normal country has moved on. Democrats should be walking into a midterm layup with a razor-thin GOP House majority, but they are blowing it because their brand is communism, chaos, racial grievance, fake voting-rights hysteria, and contempt for normal Americans. Trump went 8-0. Obama went 0-2. Massie got bounced. Cassidy got buried. The anti-Trump industrial complex is learning a hard lesson: voters want results.
I think the October surprise will revolve around fraud and arrests. He's been laying the groundwork for the arrest and conviction of those involved in voter fraud and stealing taxpayer money. He always thinks bigger and surprises the Dems from a direction they weren't expecting. We are going after the middle, not the left. There's no hope for the left but the middle is always squishy and up for grabs.