3% growth? Not bad, Donald, not bad
The GDP fell by 0.5% in the first quarter which featured the last 20 days of Biden auto penning government policy and pardons.
But we learned on Wednesday that the GDP rose 3% in the second quarter, the first full quarter with our favorite president back. The growth pushed Americans into the world’s first $30 trillion economy.
Let’s see how the media reacted.
The New York Times declared, “U.S. Economy Slowed in First Half of 2025 as Tariffs Scrambled Data.”
The tariffs began in the second quarter. A logical argument would be that tariffs boosted the economy.
But turning good news into bad is what NYT does best. Its former economic expert, Paul Krugman, posted on his Substack in recent weeks: “Trump’s parade flopped. No Kings Day was a hit” and “Fossil Fool: How Europe took Trump for a ride.” In the second post, PK didn’t mention the 15% tariff the EU accepted. Andy Rooney wonders why that is.
Reuters reported, “U.S. economic growth rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but that grossly overstated the economy’s health as declining imports accounted for the bulk of the improvement and domestic demand rose at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years.
“Details of the Commerce Department's advance second-quarter gross domestic product report on Wednesday pointed to a moderation in activity despite the strength suggested by the main GDP number.”
CNN reported, “The U.S. economy expanded sharply in the second quarter as businesses dialed back on imports after stocking up earlier in the year to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. But a look under the hood shows an economy that’s sputtering.”
The U.S. economy grew at a much stronger-than-expected pace in the second quarter, powered by a turnaround in the trade balance and renewed consumer strength, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.
Gross domestic product, a sum of goods and services activity across the sprawling U.S. economy, jumped 3% for the April through June period, according to figures adjusted for seasonality and inflation.
That topped the Dow Jones estimate for 2.3% and helped reverse a decline of 0.5% for the first quarter that came largely due to a huge drop in imports, which subtract from the total, as well as weak consumer spending amid tariff concerns.
So the narrative is tariffs will kill our economy but the spin is a buying spree of imports led to the negative quarter while a sudden drop in imports led to a very positive quarter—but that’s only because the government subtracts imports from the GDP.
The reason the government does that is because imports are not the domestic product and they do indeed subtract from the domestic product. Buying a Bentley helps the British GDP but comes at our expense—about $250,000 for a good one.
If only we could do something to reduce imports, you know, like charge foreigners a fee to sell their stuff here. Maybe Trump should try doing something like that.
Well of course we are doing that and tariff fears pushed imports up 37.9% in the first quarter and dropped them 30.3% in the second.
Europe sputters along, with Türkiye Today reporting, “The eurozone economy grew by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025, slowing from 0.5% growth in the first quarter, Eurostat announced on Wednesday.”
TT’s story also said:
Washington imposed a series of tariffs on EU exports earlier in the year, threatening to escalate to 30% across most goods by Aug. 1. However, the two sides reached a provisional agreement on Sunday, capping tariffs at 15% for a majority of European products.
While the deal averted a full-blown trade conflict, economists note that the 15% universal tariff is still expected to weigh on growth. According to Capital Economics, the new tariff regime could subtract approximately 0.2 percentage points from eurozone GDP in the second half of the year.
Europe’s pain is our gain. Trump kilt the EU’s leader in Trump’s palace in Scotland. Then he did the same thing to Britain’s PM, even mocking England for locking up people for mean tweets. The Brits suffer from PM mess.
The experts took a pounding. CNN’s story said, “Economists polled by data firm FactSet estimated second-quarter GDP to come in at a 2% rate.” CNBC’s story said the Dow Jones estimate was 2.3%.
But their predictions fell within the margin of error, which apparently is 50% in either direction.
By the way, the Federal Reserve in Atlanta predicted a 2.9% growth in GDP.
NYT’s story did include a nod to other factors: “Many forecasters expect a further deterioration in the months ahead, as tariffs work their way through supply chains, federal job cuts filter through the economy and stricter immigration policies take a toll on industries that rely on foreign-born workers.”
That is true. Federal job and spending cuts will reduce the GDP. As obscene as it may be, Planned Parenthood is part of our economy. Ghouls make money.
And deporting millions of illegals will slow things down. Los Angeles is beginning to become a ghost town as illegals say Adios, Amigos.
But tariffs will drive the American economy forward while raising money for the government. Some countries will get hit harder than most on Friday when the final deadline on trade deals ends. Only Red China got an extension.
Trump ain’t playing around. In his first presidency, he hosted a huge rally for Indian PM Modi in Houston and said Howdy, Modi.
Now it is Hit the Road, Jack.
On Wednesday, the president posted on Truth Social:
Remember, while India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the World, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any Country. Also, they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE — ALL THINGS NOT GOOD! INDIA WILL THEREFORE BE PAYING A TARIFF OF 25%, PLUS A PENALTY FOR THE ABOVE, STARTING ON AUGUST FIRST. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER. MAGA!
India’s exports to us are double its imports from us.
AP reported, “The new tariffs could put India at a disadvantage in the U.S. market relative to Vietnam, Bangladesh and, possibly, China, said Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations.”
Exports to the USA are 2.3% of the Indian economy. Exports to India are 0.019%—so small that you need a degree from MIT to understand it. If Modi doesn’t watch out, Trump will shutter the call centers and restrict H-1B visas. Indians now working for tech companies might want to save up for a plane ticket home.
Meanwhile, South Korea accepted a 15% tariff on their exports with no tariffs on U.S. products.
Dumping federal loafers, imports, illegal aliens and subsidies to Democrat-run non-profits do affect the economy. In the short term, there may be pain. In the long term, we will live in a Golden Age with fewer freeloaders and more jobs.



1st point: Paul Krugman is a nincompoop, always has been, and has never been correct about anything economics-wise.
2nd point: as Don pointed out eloquently yesterday, those who are referred to as experts, would have been called retards in a non-PC world.
3rd point: I will trust a billionaire businessman any day over a career politician. The “career” class considers themselves experts. I remind you of my previous point, #2 above.
Outstanding Thursday morning reading DS!
"PM mess" in England. And how. It's like that country is being run by a committee of HOA AWFLs.